The Snapchat problem, the Facebook problem, the Airbnb problem
Malcolm Gladwellat Postback 2015
Last night futurist, journalist, prognosticator, and author Malcolm Gladwell told pretty much the most data-driven marketing technologist crowd imaginable that data is not their salvation.
In fact, it could be their curse.
“More data increases our confidence, not our accuracy,” he said at mobile marketing analytics provider Tune’s Postback 2015 event in Seattle. “I want to puncture marketers’ confidence and show you where data can’t help us.”
The average person under 25 is texting more each day than the average person over 55 texts each year, Gladwell says. That’s what the data can tell us.
What it can’t tell us is why.
“The data can’t tell us the nature of the behavior,” Gladwell said. “Maybe it’s developmental … or maybe it’s generational.”
Developmental change, in Gladwell’s story, is behavior that occurs as people age. For instance, “murder is a young man’s game,” he said, with almost all murders being committed by men under the age of 25. Likewise, dying in a car accident is something that just “statistically doesn’t happen” over the age of 40. In other words, people age out of developmental changes — they are not true long-term lasting shifts in behavior.
Generational change, on the other hand, is different. That’s behavior that belongs to a generation, a cohort that grows up and continues the behavior. For example, Gladwell said, baby boomers transformed “every job in America” in the ’70s as they demanded more freedom, greater rewards, and changes in the boss-employee relationship.
The question is whether Snapchat-style behavior is developmental or behavioral.
“In the answer to that question is the answer to whether Snapchat will be around in 10 years,” Gladwell said.
Facebook is massive, amazing, and almost literally incredible: a social network connecting over a billion people. That’s what the data can tell us.
What it can’t tell us is what it will become — what its full upside potential could be.
“Facebook is at the stage that the telephone was at when they thought the phone was not for gossiping — it’s in its infancy,” Gladwell said, referencing that the early telephone marketers thought the phone was only for business. “We need to be cautious when making conclusions … we can see some things now, but we have no idea where it’s going.”
Why?
The diffusion of new technologies always takes longer than we would assume, Gladwell said. The first telephone exchange was launched in 1878, but only took off in the 1920s. The VCR was created in the 1960s in England, but didn’t reach its tipping point until the 1980s — over and above the vociferous opposition of the TV and movie industry, which was convinced it would destroy their business.
And that’s for technologies that are just innovative.
Technologies that are both innovative and and complicated, like Facebook, take even longer to really emerge.
“Any kind of new and dramatic innovation takes a long time to spread and be understood,” Gladwell said. “If we look at history, it tells us that the Facebook of today looks almost nothing like what it will tomorrow.”
The sharing economy, featuring companies like AirBnB, Uber/Lyft, even eBay, rely on trust. And they’re growing and expanding like wildfire.
And yet, if you look at recent polls of trust and trustworthiness, people’s — and especially millennials — trust is at an all-time low. Out of ten American “institutions,” including church, Congress, the presidency, and others, millennials only trust two: the military and science.
That’s conflicting data. And what the data can’t tell us is how both can be true, Gladwell said.
“Data can tell us about the immediate environment of people’s attitudes, but not much about the environment in which they were formed,” he said. “So which is right? Do people not trust others, as the polls say … or are they lying to the surveys?”
The context helps, Gladwell said.
That context is an massive shift in American society over the past few decades: a huge reduction in violent crime. For example, New York City had over 2,000 murders in 1990. Last year it was 300. In the same time frame, the overall violent crime index has gone down from 2,500 per 100,000 people to 500.
“That means that there is an entire generation of people growing up today not just with Internet and mobile phones … but also growing up who have never known on a personal, visceral level what crime is,” Gladwell said.
Baby boomers, who had very personal experiences of crime, were given powerful evidence that they should not trust. The following generations are reverting to what psychologists call “default truth.” In other words, they assume that when someone says something, it’s true … until they see evidence to the contrary.
“I think millennials are very trusting,” Gladwell said. “And when they say they’re not … they’re bullshitting.”
Whether that’s true or not, however, is extremely important to the future of the sharing economy.
The deficiencies not only in data but of data are the reason marketers have a job, Gladwell said. In fact, it goes deeper than that:
“The reason your profession is a profession and not a job is that your role is to find the truth in the data.”
And that’s a significant challenge.
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Make Use of Mobile Marketing – Play Where You Can Win
May 9, 2013
Take a deep breath, hold on to your hat, and take a seat: Amazon is building a smartphone.
Still there?
Sorry for the big shocker. Almost a year after reports that Amazon was testing smartphones in Asia, half a year after rumors Amazon was buying a smartphone chip processor, a year after more reports that Amazon was building its own smartphone, five months after unveiling a notifications system that would look really nice on a smartphone, and six months after probably wild speculation that Amazon was going to unveil a smartphone for the pre-Christmas shopping spree in 2012, there’s yet another report that Amazon is building a smartphone.
But this one has a 3D screen.
The Wall Street Journal says that Amazon is building at least two smartphones, including a high-end model with 3D graphics and retina-tracking technology so that users can navigate content by “using just their eyes.” Plus an audio-only “streaming content device.”
Harrumph.
Amazon is almost certainly working on a smartphone and almost certainly planning to release it in 2013. There’s just too much smoke for there not to be fire. And having made its bet on digital content being the growth engine of the company’s future success — 12 of the 15 highlights in Amazon’s recent earnings release were about digital content — a smartphone that makes use of Amazon’s recently expanded app store and burgeoning virtual shelves of ebooks, TV shows, movies, and all other forms of digital content makes way too much sense.
But a couple grains of salt.
Amazon hasn’t made its bones in the tablet market by offering the absolutely latest and greatest technology but by presenting a solid product at a rock-bottom price. So I’m a little skeptical about all the wild 3D speculation — especially because that could be a sweet datapoint plant for the company to identify leak sources. And, in reality, a company the size of Amazon, like Apple, is working on many different projects at any given time. Some of them will come to market, and some of them won’t.
One company that can’t be happy about Amazon impending smartphone plans, however, has to be Google. Amazon has essentially hijacked Android for its Kindle offerings, taking the open-source mobile operating system that Google has developed, stripping out the Google app store, Google apps, and Google branding, and replacing them with its own offerings. Amazon will doubtless adopt the exact same strategy with any smartphone play — as Samsung might as well.
And, given the fact that Kindle is probably the leading Android-based tablet, it has the potential to do well in smartphones as well.
Of course, incumbent leader in Android sales Samsung might have a thing or two to say about that.
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Thursday September 27, 2012 1:47 PM By Keiko Morris
Microsoft opened its first Long Island store on Friday 28th of Sept, continuing its push to connect with customers by providing a hands-on, face-to-face experience.
The store, at Walt Whitman mall in Huntington Station, takes its bow with a grand opening at 11 a.m., followed by celebrity performances by John Legend and Taio Cruz in the evening. Hall of fame running back Curtis Martin will be playing Kinect…
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Managing Editor, Mobile Commerce
Topics: Amazon, Amazon.com, Best Buy, m-commerce, Mobile,mobile commerce, mobile comparison shopping, mobile in-store, mobile statistics, Target, Wal-Mart Stores
It’s a store retailer’s worst mobile commercenightmare come true. 29% of consumers who use a smartphone to research a product while in a retail store end up purchasing the item online, many fromAmazon.com Inc., according to a new study by market research firm ClickIQ.
Of consumers who used a smartphone to research in-store and then purchase online, 55% were men and 45% were women, says the survey of 406 U.S. consumers who have researched a product while in a store and purchased that product.
For store merchants wandering their aisles watching shoppers on smartphones, age is a key indicator of who is comparing products and buying online. 26% of consumers age 30-39 and 25% age 18-29 recently used a mobile device to research a product while in a store. The numbers fall drastically from there with only 12% of those age 40-49, 6% age 50-59 and 2% age 60 or over researching products in a store using a mobile device.
Some big retailers are being hit the hardest by this m-commerce activity. Respondents possibly visited more than one retailer but the study shows that the retailers most frequented for research were Best Buy Co. at 36%, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. at 30% and Target Corp. at 29%.
To find out what happened after the in-store research was complete, survey respondents were asked to state where they eventually purchased the product they were researching. Best Buy did the best job of retaining the sale. 35% of those that researched at Best Buy ended up purchasing at the Best Buy store with another 14% purchasing at BestBuy.com. However, 21% purchased the product from Amazon.com. The rest did not purchase. Of those that did their research at Target, 29% purchased at the Target store, 8% purchased at Target.com and 21% purchased from Amazon.com. Wal-Mart retained 26% who purchased at the Wal-Mart store and 10% who purchased at Walmart.com. Wal-Mart lost 24% to Amazon.com.
When respondents were asked why they made the purchase where they did, an overwhelming 67% stated price as the determining factor. Lagging behind are availability at 14%, product features at 8%, free shipping at 7%, and already at the store 4%.
Amazon.com is No. 1 in the Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide. Best Buy is No. 11, Target is No. 22 and Walmart.com is No. 6.
Árni Rafnsson
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