
Saturday, June 16th, 2012
Editor’s note: Leo Chen is a former product manager at Amazon and is currently the co-founder of Monogram, an iPad fashion discovery and shopping app funded by 500 Startups. You can find Leo on Twitter @leoalmighty.
Death of brick-and-mortar retail
Andrew Chen recently recommended a video to me (please click video), which inspired this post. It’s a keynote by Ron Johnson, the CEO of J.C. Penney, Inc and the man behind Apple’s retail revolution. In the video, Johnson spoke about the history of the department store and why JC Penney has fallen behind.
It wasn’t very long ago that stores like J.C. Penney, Nordstrom, and Gap were the pinnacles of fashion retail. These retailers provided better products at unbeatable prices. Retail buyers acted as personal curators for customers and the in-store experience was exceptional.
Then came e-commerce. Predictable products like books, CDs, and electronics drove the first wave of e-commerce for e-tailers like Amazon. But fashion lagged behind. Consumers want a tactile, in-person experience when it comes to garments. They need to touch and try it on. Even as e-tailers offered lower prices, consumers preferred to shop in stores.
That all began to change when Zappos came along with free shipping and returns; customers are encouraged to order multiple sizes and colors, try on the items in the comfort of our homes and return what we don’t want. For free. Coupled with better product visualizations (large images, multi-angle views – see Warby Parker and MyHabit), consumers are increasingly turning to the web for their fashion needs.
‘Apparel and accessories’ is projected to be the leading category in e-commerce in the US over the next 5 years.
But soon, online retailers will also become less relevant
The bar for e-commerce is rising every day: great visuals and free shipping are fast becoming commoditized. If product, price and service are the same, consumers will grow indifferent towards the seller.
Retailers still drive marketing, supply chain and distribution for designers and brands, but how long before brands figure this out themselves? Social curation and discovery tools like Pinterest and Fancy are leveling the playing field for retail marketing; Amazon is disrupting supply chain and fulfillment (more on this next).
So why are we still shopping at a handful of our so-called “favorite stores”? Because the internet has a noise and discovery problem. I believe that’s where the next wave of fashion tech innovation will take us.
Pinterest has found an optimal balance between aspirational browsing and shopping. Social shopping is more about discovery, conversations and relationship building, something that’s apparent in the way Pinterest users interact.
As Pinterest evolves, they will focus more on monetization and driving direct commerce. They have already experimented with affiliate links and the Rakuten investment is a strong hint at direct commerce. Here’s what I predict Pinterest might do next (purely speculative, of course):
- Branded pages for brands, stores and boutiques
- There’s already evidence that Pinterest users spend more money than Facebook users.
- Pinterest could compete directly with Facebook pages by offering brands a better way to showcase products with access to a higher quality audience.
- Integrated/Universal checkout
- If users are already discovering products through Pinterest but going off to merchant sites to transact, Pinterest should own that transaction and offer a consistent user experience.
- For smaller retailers and boutiques, Pinterest could integrate, acquire or build their own version of Shopify and let merchants sell directly on the Pinterest platform.
- For large retailers and brands, Pinterest will have to form partnerships and integrate with retailer payment systems: essentially selling products on Pinterest, and having the retailer drop ship inventory. Retailers may resist this initially because Pinterest will effectively render the merchant less relevant.
- Brands will be more inclined to work with Pinterest because they see it as an effective distribution channel. Brands can ultimately skip the retailer if they can get distribution through Pinterest. Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) solves the logistics challenges — brands can simply ship inventory to an Amazon warehouse and have Amazon handle fulfillment. Consumers get the added benefit of Amazon Prime.
- Create an e-commerce channel
- To mitigate the risk of disrupting (and irritating) current user, Pinterest will likely create a separate shopping channel if they decide to focus on commerce (e.g.shop.pinterest.com).
- This shopping channel will be product and commerce focused. You won’t find the cute puppies and fortune cookie quotes here, but you can bet Pinterest will leverage all your data for targeting.
Challenges Pinterest will face
As Pinterest scales, the biggest challenge will be surfacing signal buried in noise. It’s the Facebook Newsfeed problem, but much more difficult because of its focus on fashion and other tastemaker products.
- Facebook is about people, so to make my newsfeed relevant it has to factor in the quality of my relationships. Who am I closer friends with, who is my family, which fan pages do I interact with most, etc. This is easy because we give Facebook that information every time we look at a friend’s photos, like a status update or comment on a post. Facebook doesn’t care what content we interacted with; it only needs to know who produced that content.
- Fashion and other tastemaker products (e.g. home decor) are highly subjective, which means that I don’t necessarily like the same clothes or sofas as my closest friends. If I like a picture of a cute puppy my friend pinned, doesn’t mean I share his taste in fashion. Aside from existing Pinterest categories, they will have to find ways to add deeper tags on the products pinned (e.g. brand, color, style, season, fabric, patterns, etc…) to accurately target.
What’s next in fashion tech?
To date, most fashion tech companies are more commerce than tech. If you look at Gilt and Fab, they’re primarily commerce companies built on fairly standard e-commerce backends with some slight twists. It’s hard to drive disruptive innovation when your KPI is revenue.
In order to fundamentally change the way people shop, we will need teams with fashion experts, product visionaries, deep technical horsepower and growth hackers. It’s a hard combination to find, especially when most hackers in the valley shlep around in jeans and t-shirts — they’re not their own target user.
What will online fashion shopping be like in the future? I believe today’s multi-browser-tab search and filter behavior will feel as ancient as printed maps and yellow pages are today.
When I have a specific purchase in mind:
- I picture myself telling Siri that I’m looking for some sneakers as I’m driving home from work.
- When I get home, sink into my couch with my iPad or turn on my Apple TV, I’m shown pages of sneakers specifically curated for me, in my size.
- I choose a few that I like, tap buy, and the shoes show up the next morning on my doorstep.
When I’m in the mood to browse:
- I’m shown the latest collections and recommendations from my favorite designers, fashion bloggers and influencers (without having to search and filter on multiple websites).
- Upcoming designers are recommended to me based on my style and preferences. Some of these recommendations are computer generated, some are handpicked by designers or personal stylists.
- I won’t just be browsing product photos as I do on nordstrom.com today, it will be an interactive experience with inspiring looks, runway videos and beautiful images. Like Tom Cruise’s command center in Minority Report, except I am surrounded by Prada, Varvatos & Converse.
- I can’t tell the difference between product and advertisement because everything can be purchased with a tap or a drag.
- If I order by 11am, products will be at my doorstep by 6pm same day (Amazon already does this in China).
Welcome to the future.
Andrew Chen The recommended video which inspired this post.
During the presentation, Mr. Johnson and Mr. Francis introduced a new pricing strategy called Fair and Square, which includes three types of prices. Everyday, regular prices, which are always great; Month-Long Values, even better prices on the things you need now; and Best Prices, jcpenney’s lowest prices, which always happen on the 1st and 3rd Fridays of every month as jcpenney makes room for exciting new merchandise. These prices will be coupled with a new promotional cadence that is in sync with customers’ lives. Rather than inundating the customer with a relentless series of sales, coupons, rebates and retail gimmicks, jcpenney will host 12 promotional events each year, on a monthly calendar. Each month will include even better values on the things customers are looking to buy during the month and a host of exciting products and services that are unique to the month.Commenting on the new monthly calendar, Mr. Johnson said, “We want customers to shop on their terms, not ours. By setting our store monthly and maintaining our best prices for an entire month, we feel confident that customers will love shopping when it is convenient for them, rather than when it is expedient for us.”Re-inventing the In-Store Experience around New and Transformed Brands:
At the event, Mr. Johnson and Mr. Francis also outlined plans to entirely re-invent the jcpenney store experience, to include Main Street — the entire store merchandised in a series of 80 to 100 brand shops, rather than the confusing and seemingly endless racks common in department stores today. It will also feature Town Square — an exciting new place that replaces the traditional retail center core of a department store with a series of services, which customers will enjoy before they buy, while they shop and afterwards. And, throughout, the new jcpenney store experience will merge the physical and digital worlds, assuring the physical retail stores’ vital role as the centerpiece of retailing’s future.They also gave a sneak peek into the exciting new brands that will be featured in jcpenney’s brand shops. They include Martha Stewart® and l’amour nanette lepore™, which were shown at the event today, among many others. jcpenney also announced plans to transform its customers’ favorite existing brands, including, IZOD®, Liz Claiborne® and The Original Arizona Jean Company®, which were also featured at today’s event, and a number of others. jcpenney expects to feature 30 new and transformed brands by fall 2012.o Launching a new jcpenney brand identity, new logo, new look and Ellen!
In celebration of the complete transformation of its shopping experience, Mr. Johnson and Mr. Francis gave an overview of the new jcpenney brand identity. It includes:o The new jcpenney logo, which combines the elements that have made jcpenney an enduring American brand, by evoking the nation’s flag and
jcpenney’s commitment to treating customers Fair and Square. The square frame imagery will be evident throughout all of jcpenney’s marketing, to remind customers to frame the things they love.o New brand marketing to showcase great product in an exciting new way, to solidify jcpenney’s relationship with its loyal customers and entice new ones. This includes the new monthly book, beginning next month, that millions of Americans will receive, which includes 96 pages of highlights for that month, as well as an entirely new look for jcpenney stores in terms of signage and presentation.o Welcoming Ellen DeGeneres back to jcpenney, as jcpenney’s new brand partner. Ellen began her career in her teens as a jcpenney associate and now, as one of the country’s most beloved television personalities, she will help bring the new jcpenney experience to life in her own fun-loving, sneaker-wearing, laughmaking way.Mr. Francis said, “We are redefining the jcpenney brand so we become a store for all Americans, by offering an experience they cannot get anywhere else. This will start by freeing consumers from the barrage of promotions and undifferentiated shopping experiences they have become used to and replacing it with something entirely fresh and new that is evident in every aspect of our store – new brands, new marketing, unique attractions, and much more. Beginning on February 1, our customers will see immediate changes that give a sense of how we will transform jcpenney over the next four years. It will be a breath of much-needed fresh air and give them reasons to visit jcpenney more often than ever before. Our objective is to make our customers love to shop again and across jcpenney, we’re very excited about the changes to come.”The Transformation Begins on February 1
The Company will begin the transformation of the jcpenney shopping experience on February 1, with the implementation of its new logo, pricing strategy and monthly cadence, including new instore signage reflecting true price clarity as well as edited merchandise assortments for the monthly store set.Then, beginning in August of this year, jcpenney will begin a month-by-month, shop-by-shop strategy to update all stores with new and exciting merchandise and presentation. Two to three shops will be installed monthly, each and every month, over a four-year transformation period, including the debut of Town Square during 2013. These initiatives will culminate in the complete transformation of jcpenney by the end of 2015.For additional information on Ellen DeGeneres’ new role as jcpenney’s brand partner and jcpenney’s new brand partnership with Nanette Lepore, please see the separate press releases that the Company issued today on each of these exciting initiatives.Tomorrow, as previously announced, the Company will hold a presentation and Q&A session for analysts and investors beginning at 9:00 am ET through 10:30 am ET, to discuss the financial components of its transformation plans and financial outlook. For webcast and conference call
dial-in information, please visit http://ir.jcpenney.com.About J. C. Penney Company, Inc.
Over 110 years ago, James Cash Penney founded his company on the principle of treating customers the way he wanted to be treated himself: fair and square. Today, rooted in its rich heritage, J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) is re-imagining every aspect of its business in order to reclaim its birthright and become America’s favorite store. The Company is transforming the way it does business and remaking the customer experience across its 1,100 jcpenney stores and on jcp.com. On every visit, customers will discover straightforward Fair and Square Pricing, month-long promotions that are in sync with the rhythm of their lives, exceptionally curated merchandise, artful presentation, and unmatched customer service.For more information about jcpenney, visit jcp.com.
This release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements, which reflect the Company’s current views of future events and financial performance, involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause the Company’s actual results to be materially different from planned or expected results. Those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, general economic conditions, including inflation, recession, unemployment levels, consumer spending patterns, credit availability and debt levels, changes in store traffic trends, the cost of goods, trade restrictions, changes in pricing strategies, changes in tariff, freight and shipping rates, changes in the cost of fuel and other energy and transportation costs, increases in wage and benefit costs, competition and retail industry consolidations,interest rate fluctuations, dollar and other currency valuations, the impact of weather conditions, risks associated with war, an act of terrorism or pandemic, and a systems failure and/or security breach that results in the theft, transfer or unauthorized disclosure of customer, employee or Company information and legal and regulatory proceedings. Please refer to the Company’s most recent Form 10-K and subsequent filings for a further discussion of risks and uncertainties. Investors should take such risks into account when making investment decisions. We do not undertake to update these forward-looking statements as of any future date.