The Snapchat problem, the Facebook problem, the Airbnb problem : Malcolm Gladwell

Why marketers have a job

Malcolm Gladwellat Postback 2015

JOHN KOETSIER JULY 24, 2015 

In fact, it could be their curse.

“More data increases our confidence, not our accuracy,” he said at mobile marketing analytics provider Tune’s Postback 2015 event in Seattle. “I want to puncture marketers’ confidence and show you where data can’t help us.”

The Snapchat problem

The average person under 25 is texting more each day than the average person over 55 texts each year, Gladwell says. That’s what the data can tell us.

What it can’t tell us is why.

“The data can’t tell us the nature of the behavior,” Gladwell said. “Maybe it’s developmental … or maybe it’s generational.”

Developmental change, in Gladwell’s story, is behavior that occurs as people age. For instance, “murder is a young man’s game,” he said, with almost all murders being committed by men under the age of 25. Likewise, dying in a car accident is something that just “statistically doesn’t happen” over the age of 40. In other words, people age out of developmental changes — they are not true long-term lasting shifts in behavior.

Generational change, on the other hand, is different. That’s behavior that belongs to a generation, a cohort that grows up and continues the behavior. For example, Gladwell said, baby boomers transformed “every job in America” in the ’70s as they demanded more freedom, greater rewards, and changes in the boss-employee relationship.

The question is whether Snapchat-style behavior is developmental or behavioral.

“In the answer to that question is the answer to whether Snapchat will be around in 10 years,” Gladwell said.

The Facebook problem

Facebook is massive, amazing, and almost literally incredible: a social network connecting over a billion people. That’s what the data can tell us.

What it can’t tell us is what it will become — what its full upside potential could be.

“Facebook is at the stage that the telephone was at when they thought the phone was not for gossiping — it’s in its infancy,” Gladwell said, referencing that the early telephone marketers thought the phone was only for business. “We need to be cautious when making conclusions … we can see some things now, but we have no idea where it’s going.”

Why?

The diffusion of new technologies always takes longer than we would assume, Gladwell said. The first telephone exchange was launched in 1878, but only took off in the 1920s. The VCR was created in the 1960s in England, but didn’t reach its tipping point until the 1980s — over and above the vociferous opposition of the TV and movie industry, which was convinced it would destroy their business.

And that’s for technologies that are just innovative.

Technologies that are both innovative and and complicated, like Facebook, take even longer to really emerge.

“Any kind of new and dramatic innovation takes a long time to spread and be understood,” Gladwell said. “If we look at history, it tells us that the Facebook of today looks almost nothing like what it will tomorrow.”

The Airbnb problem

The sharing economy, featuring companies like AirBnB, Uber/Lyft, even eBay, rely on trust. And they’re growing and expanding like wildfire.

And yet, if you look at recent polls of trust and trustworthiness, people’s — and especially millennials — trust is at an all-time low. Out of ten American “institutions,” including church, Congress, the presidency, and others, millennials only trust two: the military and science.

That’s conflicting data. And what the data can’t tell us is how both can be true, Gladwell said.

“Data can tell us about the immediate environment of people’s attitudes, but not much about the environment in which they were formed,” he said. “So which is right? Do people not trust others, as the polls say … or are they lying to the surveys?”

The context helps, Gladwell said.

That context is an massive shift in American society over the past few decades: a huge reduction in violent crime. For example, New York City had over 2,000 murders in 1990. Last year it was 300. In the same time frame, the overall violent crime index has gone down from 2,500 per 100,000 people to 500.

“That means that there is an entire generation of people growing up today not just with Internet and mobile phones … but also growing up who have never known on a personal, visceral level what crime is,” Gladwell said.

Baby boomers, who had very personal experiences of crime, were given powerful evidence that they should not trust. The following generations are reverting to what psychologists call “default truth.” In other words, they assume that when someone says something, it’s true … until they see evidence to the contrary.

“I think millennials are very trusting,” Gladwell said. “And when they say they’re not … they’re bullshitting.”

Whether that’s true or not, however, is extremely important to the future of the sharing economy.

Why marketers have a job

The deficiencies not only in data but of data are the reason marketers have a job, Gladwell said. In fact, it goes deeper than that:

“The reason your profession is a profession and not a job is that your role is to find the truth in the data.”

And that’s a significant challenge.

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NCO eCommerce

The Shark 3d Sticker Alibaba

 NCO eCommerce  Shark Attack  

There are more than 465 known species of sharks living in our oceans today. Sharks are an apex predator at or near the top of their marine food chains.

Sharks have prowled Earth’s seas, essentially unchanged, for 400 million years. Their size, power, and great, toothy jaws fill us with fear and fascination.

Alibaba  Netkaup.is

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EUROPEAN SEAFOOD EXPOSITION 2012 Brussels April 24th-26th News Review

Sjávarútvegssýningar  í Brussel í 20 ár    Netkaup.is

16.05.2012 | Islandsstofa.is     Netkaup.is

N4 þættir frá sjávarútvegssýningunni í Brussel 2012:

EUROPEAN SEAFOOD EXPOSITION 24.-26.  April 2012

Click on the links :

http://www.n4.is/tube/file/view/2541/
http://www.n4.is/tube/file/view/2500/
http://www.n4.is/tube/file/view/2542/

Tuttugu ár eru liðin frá því sjávarútvegssýningarnar í Brussel, European Seafood Exposition og Seafood Processing Europe voru settar á laggirnar. Ísland hefur verið með þjóðarbása á sýningunum frá upphafi sem fara stækkandi milli ára, en um 30 íslensk fyrirtæki tóku þátt í ár.

Hr. Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, forseti Íslands, heimsótti sýningarnar og heilsaði upp á íslensku sýnendurna. Hann var einnig viðstaddur sérstaka móttöku á sýningarbás Íslandsstofu sem skipulögð var í samvinnu við sendiráð Íslands í Brussel en þar mætti fjöldi erlendra og innlendra gesta.

Fyrir Íslendinga er sýningin orðin fastur liður margra aðila í greininni að sækja heim.
Sýningarnar eru jafnan vettvangur alls hins besta og framsæknasta sem sjávarútvegsfyrirtæki heimsins og fyrirtækja sem þjónusta sjávarútveginn hafa upp á að bjóða. Í ár tóku rúmlega 1600 sýnendur þátt í ESE-sýningunni og sýnendur á SPE sýningunni, sem er vettvangur véla- og tækjaframleiðenda, voru rúmlega 200 talsins.

Netkaup með 4G (fjórðu kynslóðar) tækni. Samtenging á upplýsingatækni, snjallsíma og vörudreifingu

Interactive TV Ads – Cannes Lions – Microsoft Advertising – www.netkaup.is

Why social TV will be a multi-billion dollar business

Posted by CORY BERGMAN on June 27, 2011

The former CEO of Endemol, the world’s largest independent production house, says social TV is “going to be huge.” The CEO of Hulu calls it a game-changer. And the research firm Futurescape says social TV has “radical implications for the future of television viewing.” Is it just hyperbole, or are real economics in play? There are three arenas where social TV is quickly gaining traction, and all three have the potential to become billion dollar businesses by themselves.

1. Interactive TV at last

Last April, Yahoo snapped up IntoNow for $20 to $30 million, just three months after the TV-listening app made its debut. By encouraging viewers to “tag” TV shows and commercials for rewards, IntoNow is beginning to bridge the last mile of television, bringing interactivity to TV commercials — a task that interactive TV companies have tried for a decade. This month the music-listening app Shazam landed a $32 million funding round to expand its push into TV to reward users for tagging commercials, and other startups, like WiO, are quickly pushing into the space.

TV check-in companies like GetGlue and Miso, for example, also have potential if they can move beyond the mobile check-in. “(The) check-in is just the starting point of a conversation about TV but it is not the be-all end-all,” says Miso CEO Somrat Niyogi, who recently opened an app store for Miso’s API. “We believe the social TV experience can exist everywhere.”

Xbox, too, is making strides at connecting viewers to commercials in innovative ways. Last week Xboxannounced that will voice and motion interactivity to commercials — called NUads — for users with the Kinect attachment. “I’m here to say that it will change television as we know it — forever,” explains Mark Kroese, a GM at Microsoft. “I say this because NUads — specifically the Kinect voice and gesture technology that enables them — finally unties the Gordian knot of interactive television, and by extension, interactive advertising.”

Advertisers, programmers and distributors have dreamed of untying the knot — or whatever metaphor you want to use — because billions of dollars are at stake. Imagine knowing who interacted with a commercial and who took action on it. Until now, the only real metric has been TV ratings, and the promise of interactive TV has never reached scale. Too many technologies, set top boxes, cable/satellite operators. But as mobile apps grow in scale, they live seamlessly away from the traditional confines of TV technology and competitive lines. And gaming platforms have crept into living rooms in massive numbers — Xbox Live is television’s largest social network, claiming 35 million members. Mobile apps and gaming platforms have become the bridge.

2. Social TV guides will make you watch even more

That alone is worth billions, but there’s another big economic driver to social TV. Just as DVRs increased television viewing — much to the surprise of many — social TV guides will empower viewers to make smarter choices and discover shows they never knew existed. By measuring what you’ve watched, what you’ve liked, what your friends have recommended and what’s trending overall, social TV guides will make surprisingly-accurate suggestions. Matcha.tv (below) is an example of a social TV guide that’s starting to get close, but it’s just one of as many as a dozen startups in this space.

Just look at how Netflix has increased its business to the tune of millions of dollars through behavioral recommendation algorithms — just wait until they roll out an “extensive” Facebook integration in the months to come, adding social recommendations to the mix. Facebook says its users have “liked” TV shows 1.65 billion times, becoming a natural recommendation engine for TV. Last week, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings even joined Facebook’s board to “take advantage of all the opportunities ahead.”

Beyond Netflix, imagine social TV guides built into every cable and satellite service, every set top box, every connected TV set. They’ll suggest new episodes of your favorite shows, available instantly on demand. Shows your friends recommend. And algorithmic suggestions that make Netflix and TiVo’s current picks look like child’s play. No need to record anything — everything exists instantly. Comcast just previewed (above) a new cable experience that’s the first step in the direction of reinventing TV guides and channel surfing. It’s likely when viewers turn on their TV sets (and tablets) in 3 years, they’ll see a social TV guide startup screen, not a live TV channel.

3. Second-screens become a natural viewing extension

iPad owners spend more time in front of TV with their tablet than any other activity, a Nielsen study found. And tablets are predicted to continue to grow like wildfire, reaching 23% of the U.S. internet population by next year.

No wonder why cable companies, broadcasters, programmers and sports leagues are scrambling to roll out “second screen” apps that tie to TV. Fueled in part by Twitter’s role in providing a real-time social layer over television, these apps are becoming a natural extension of TV programming, both live and on demand. Imagine, for example, downloading an NFL app that provides a rich game program — the same you’d receive at the stadium — along with real-time stats, Twitter chat and multiple live cameras. (The NFL offered something similar, but scaled down, for the Super Bowl.) Second-screen apps are also becoming remote controls, like Xfinity’s new iPad app (above), making your tablet a natural extension of TV viewing.

While there have been anecdotal examples that Twitter has helped drive ratings around TV shows — like Piers Morgan’s last-minute interview with Charlie Sheen — the bigger opportunity will be second-screen advertisements that tie with the broadcast. One of my favorite sponsored apps was the Master’s golf app(above), sponsored by IBM, and there are dozens more. Second Screen Network is an example of a company that’s moving ahead with an ad network that spans all kinds of second screen apps. For viewers who aren’t tagging, checking in, or clicking on TV commercials, second screen ads add another path of interactivity.

That’s why former Endemol CEO Ynon Kreiz told attendees of a TV conference earlier this year to “get up, leave this room” and run to their garages to get to work designing the future of social TV. “Whoever figures it out, will be the next Steve Jobs of this generation,” he said.

Stay tuned to Lost Remote for continuing social TV coverage. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook or sign upfor a daily email of our stories.

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GEORGE HARRISON – Living In The Material World

GEORGE HARRISON :   “You have to change”

FAMOUS rebel, an Innovator, the QUIET BEATLE, unknown VISIONARY

In a lifetime you can become anything.

Here comes the SUN.   www.netkaup.is

Martin Scorsese’s Trailer

Richard Branson Necker Island interview. What makes a successful entepreneur ?

With Joe Polish, Yanik Silver and Marie Forleo.   Jun 15, 2011

1  What is the absolute key ?

2  How  to be a good delegator ?

3  How to make a difference ?

4   How to start a business ?

5  With modern communication why should you have  to get stuck in an office ?

6  Remember to have fun while taking part in the action.

7  When marketing something the most important is the product itself ?

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Jack Griffin’s Ouster: Lessons from a Failed “Change Agent”

Avoid styling yourself as a “change agent,” make it clear that you’re arriving with an open mind and focus on generating hunger for change rather than on imposing change directly.    Harvard Business Review.    See more :

http://blogs.hbr.org/hbr/hbreditors/2011/02/jack_griffins_ouster_lessons_f.html

Tímarnir breytast og mennirnir með. www.netkaup.is

“Úr sólkerfum himnanna hnýta þér krans þínir herskarar, tímanna safn” Gleðilegt ár !